Your Money, Your Moves: June 2025 Issue

This Month’s Market Moves, Decoded for You

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What’s covered in this newsletter:

• Current Look at the Market for DIY Investors

• Our 3 Model Portfolio Updates

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Current Look at the Market

With trendlines intact and volume fading, investors like us face a crucial question: is this the start of something big—or the calm before the storm?

Let’s digest what is going on in the market with this important chart:

• Pink trendline: This 2.5-year trendline shows a strong support for the S&P 500 since it bottomed in October 2022. The market has come and touched it several times, however, has not closed a day below it since October 2022

• Yellow trendline: A strong move downward mid-February 2025 that gained steam (downward) on “Liberation Day” April 2nd.

• Blue trendline: The market reversed course with an impulsive upward move, forming a new trendline that hasn’t been broken since late April.

• Purple range: May essentially traded within a range where it came up to ~6,000 and then dropped to ~5750 and then back up to where we currently are ~5990. We are starting our 4th week of this range bound price action. The range is starting to form higher lows moving up with the blue trendline.

LEARNING THE LINGO
Range Bound Price Action: The price of an asset fluctuates within a defined range of highs and lows without establishing a clear upward or downward trend.

Range Trading: buying low and selling high while an asset bounces between two price levels.

Where is this going to lead us?

Based on the data, we see two plausible scenarios ahead—each with different implications for investors: